Developed from a mechanism created by CPI/PUC-Rio, the new study implements the Deforestation Reversal Mechanism (RDM) to restore forests at scale in the Amazon. The RDM was originally conceived after COP30 President, Ambassador André Corrêa do Lago, convened a council of economists to contribute to the economic dimensions of the conference, including the “Baku to Belém Roadmap for 1.3T” and the COP30 Action Agenda.

The new analysis shows that the mechanism could generate US$784 billion over 30 years and capture up to 26 gigatons of CO₂ in the Brazilian Amazon, assuming a carbon price of US$50 per ton. This would turn forest restoration into a powerful driver of both economic growth and climate action. The RDM remunerates net tons of carbon recovered in deforested areas, creating new economic opportunities for the Amazon region and for Brazil.

In practice, subnational or national governments sign carbon credit purchase agreements with public or private buyers, based on a pre-agreed price per ton of CO₂ removed from the atmosphere. The volume of credits is calculated from net forest restoration—i.e., after discounting any emissions from new deforestation—ensuring environmental integrity. The revenues can then be allocated to conservation, payments for ecosystem services, active forest restoration models, and social policies, creating an economic cycle that funds the transition toward a low-carbon development model in the Amazon.

According to the analysis, Pará has the greatest potential, with 9.6 GtCO₂ and an estimated revenue of US$292 billion, followed by Mato Grosso (7.3 GtCO₂; US$221 billion) and Rondônia (3.5 GtCO₂; US$106 billion). States with large forest stocks, such as Amazonas, play a strategic role in conservation mechanisms. In total, 25.8 GtCO₂ could be removed from the atmosphere, generating financial returns equivalent to nearly 40% of Brazil’s annual GDP.

“COP30 represents a historic opportunity to place forests at the center of the global climate solution. Brazil has the chance to show the world that development and conservation can go hand in hand, offering—through large-scale restoration—a concrete response to the climate crisis and a new economic pathway for the Amazon region,” said Beto Veríssimo, Special Envoy for Forests at COP30.

In the Amazon, much of the land best suited for agricultural production has already been deforested in the past, while areas with the greatest carbon capture potential are located elsewhere. This means it is possible to intensify production in consolidated areas while restoring and conserving strategic climate zones—without sacrificing productivity. Instead of being mutually exclusive, agricultural production and restoration can coexist, generating economic and environmental benefits simultaneously. In other words, agriculture does not need to compete with deforestation reversal.

“The RDM treats forest regeneration as a high-value economic asset, capable of generating revenue and delivering climate benefits simultaneously. By aligning policies and financial resources, the mechanism fills a central gap in large-scale restoration finance. This gives Brazil the opportunity to position itself as a global climate leader—turning Amazon restoration into a driver of development and of the valorization of its greatest natural asset: the forest,” said Juliano Assunção, Executive Director of CPI/PUC-Rio and one of the study’s authors.

A New Financial Mechanism for the Forest

The Deforestation Reversal Mechanism (RDM) remunerates net tons of carbon captured through restoration, with the potential to integrate into international carbon markets, including those under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. It complements existing mechanisms such as Jurisdictional REDD+ (JREDD+), which focuses on reducing deforestation, and the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF), which rewards forest conservation. Together, these mechanisms form a more complete financial architecture capable of supporting both protection and large-scale restoration.

Combined, these mechanisms represent an unprecedented economic opportunity:

• JREDD+ could generate around US$5 billion;

• TFFF, around US$26 billion;

• RDM, up to US$784 billion — significantly expanding the capacity to finance Amazon protection and restoration.

How the Mechanism Works in Practice

The process begins with identifying areas for restoration and measuring net carbon capture, discounting emissions from deforestation and degradation. These results are then converted into carbon credits, which can be traded in national or international markets at a pre-defined price per ton of CO₂.

The resulting revenue is channeled into a jurisdictional fund, which allocates resources to restoration and conservation activities. This structure creates a virtuous financial cycle in which forest restoration generates revenue, funds its own expansion, and drives sustainable development in the Amazon.

Brazil already has the technical and institutional infrastructure to implement the RDM swiftly and effectively. The country has advanced satellite monitoring systems—such as Deter, Prodes, MapBiomas, and SAD/Imazon—that enable accurate tracking of deforestation and vegetation regeneration.

It also has the Rural Environmental Registry (CAR), which allows rural properties to be linked to environmental monitoring and enforcement. Additionally, Brazil has consolidated experience with results-based payment mechanisms, including the Amazon Fund, the National REDD+ Strategy, and successful subnational initiatives like Pará’s Sustainable Territories Program.

This strong technical, legal, and institutional foundation provides the conditions to operationalize the RDM at scale—with international credibility.