The Amazon is home to 2,599 agrarian reform settlements, which occupy 45% of the settled agrarian area in Brazil and support nearly 400,000 families. Although these settlements represent only 8% of the Amazon biome, they accounted for 24% of the forest loss in 2023.

In a new study, researchers from Climate Policy Initiative/Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (CPI/PUC-Rio) analyze the concentrated deforestation in a small group of settlements and argue that targeted public policies aimed at these critical areas could significantly reduce forest loss in the Amazon.

Between 2008 and 2023, forest cover loss in settled areas followed a similar pattern to other parts of the Amazon, indicating that the same drivers of deforestation impact both agrarian reform areas and the broader biome. A notable portion of this deforestation results from the clearing of large areas, which is not typical of small-scale farming and exceeds the financial capacity of most settlers, who live in vulnerable socio-economic conditions. This suggests that deforestation in settlements is likely driven by external actors and broader forces, rather than the resident population.

A key finding of the study is the high concentration of deforestation in a few settlements: just 5% of the settlements are responsible for 65% of the forest loss. Moreover, the same settlements, often in close geographic proximity, consistently show high deforestation rates year after year. Targeting these settlements with focused public policies could make a significant difference in reducing deforestation.

Given this concentration, the National Institute for Colonization and Agrarian Reform (INCRA), which oversees agrarian reform policies and manages public lands in Brazil, should implement targeted strategies to promote forest conservation. In the Amazon, INCRA operates through 11 regional superintendencies, three of which are located in Pará, while the others are spread across the nine remaining states of the biome.

At the superintendency level, the concentration of deforestation is similarly stark. For instance, five settlements account for 75% of deforestation in the Amazonas Superintendency, and three of the eleven superintendencies are responsible for 63% of deforestation in settled areas.

This concentrated pattern of forest loss presents a critical opportunity for action. Strategic interventions focused on these priority settlements could yield significant results in combating deforestation and should be integrated into the plans of key agencies like the Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change (MMA) and the Brazilian Institute for the Environment and Natural Resources (IBAMA). Additionally, INCRA can enhance its efforts by prioritizing action in these high-deforestation superintendencies and settlements, leading to more effective forest conservation across the region.