The Amazon 2030 project aims to propose solutions for the economic, social, and environmental development of the Brazilian Amazon. In the first phase (2020-2022), the project – led by Brazilian researchers – engaged over 80 researchers from various regional, national, and international institutions. They published 60 technical reports on topics related to social policies (health, education, public safety, demography), the Amazonian economy (income and employment, public finance, bioeconomy, infrastructure, livestock, and others), environmental conservation (forest restoration, carbon market, anti-deforestation policies, etc.), as well as cross-cutting themes such as land tenure and cities.
The book “Amazon 2030” (Volume 1) is a synthesis of the studies published in the first phase of the project. It is structured into three chapters:
- The Amazon Paradox;
- The Five Amazons: Foundations for the Sustainable Development of the Brazilian Amazon;
- Zero Deforestation and Land Use Planning: Pillars for the Sustainable Development of the Brazilian Amazon.
The first chapter addresses the so-called Amazon paradox, in which three serious problems are recast as opportunities for the region.
Firstly, over the last decades, the Amazon has experienced extensive deforestation, amounting to around 84 million hectares. This has resulted in the creation of vast degraded areas, often abandoned or occupied by low-productivity agriculture or cattle ranching. If productivity were improved, these deforested areas could accommodate all agricultural expansion in the region, creating a surplus of approximately 35 million hectares. This surplus could be utilized for forest restoration involving the planting of native trees for carbon capture or directed towards other land uses.
Secondly, despite facing excessive deforestation, the Brazilian Amazon retains a vast remaining forest cover that is gaining increasing strategic value and importance due to its environmental services, potential for the bioeconomy, and superlative biodiversity.
Thirdly, the Amazon has over 8 million working-age adults who are not in the workforce. This serious social crisis can represent an opportunity, heightened by the fact that the region is still benefiting from a demographic bonus. That is, the number of economically active adults is larger than the number of children and the elderly.
The second chapter discusses the heterogeneity that exists within the Brazilian Amazon. Covering 5 million km2, which is equivalent to 59% of Brazil, the region displays distinct patterns of human occupation and land use. Recognizing the different “Amazons” is a precondition for any feasible sustainable development plan for the region. In this chapter, the Brazilian Amazon is divided into five major zones: “The Forested Brazilian Amazon”, “The Brazilian Amazon with Forest Under Pressure”, “The Deforested Brazilian Amazon”, “The Non-Forested Brazilian Amazon” (the vast majority of this area is covered by savanna-type vegetation and natural grasslands), and “The Urban Brazilian Amazon” (where about two-thirds of the population resides). Policy suggestions vary depending on the zone. For example, intensifying agriculture and forest restoration are critical for the development of the Deforested Brazilian Amazon. In contrast, environmental enforcement carries greater weight in the Brazilian Amazon with Forest Under Pressure, where most deforestation has occurred. The bioeconomy should be encouraged throughout the region, but it is key in the Forested Amazon. The carbon market is fundamental in all zones, but the REDD+ mechanism (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) is even more critical in the Brazilian Amazon with Forest Under Pressure.
Ending deforestation is crucial for both the environment and climate, as well as for the economic and social development of the Brazilian Amazon. Continued deforestation keeps Amazonian society trapped in a vicious cycle of environmental destruction with low land productivity, high poverty rates, and slow social progress. Moreover, it has contributed in recent years to an explosion of environmental crimes and increased violence in the region.
In summary, deforestation deteriorates the economic environment and prevents good investments in the region. Land use planning is also imperative, as approximately 29% of the Brazilian Amazon territory remains with undefined land tenure, a significant portion of which consists of public forests not allocated.
The bases for allocating these lands are already present in current Brazilian legislation. Therefore, it is crucial that land use planning policy in the Brazilian Amazon aligns the procedures for allocating public lands according to the order of priorities identified in the Constitution and national legislation.
Increasing regional productivity, attracting good investors and entrepreneurs to the region, harnessing opportunities related to the bioeconomy and forest restoration, and ensuring the provision and remuneration of ecosystem services provided by the forest are all impossible without zero deforestation and land use planning.
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