Brazilian agribusiness, which is already responsible for conserving vast areas through Legal Reserves, could become one of the main drivers of forest expansion in the country over the coming decades. This is one of the key conclusions of the second edition of the study Brazilian Forests at the Center of the Global Climate Agenda, which provides a comprehensive overview of forest conservation, restoration, and planted forests in Brazil, along with recommendations on financing and public policies. The document, which will be presented this year at all three United Nations Conferences of the Parties (COPs) — Climate, Biodiversity, and Desertification — argues that agricultural production, conservation, and forest expansion are not competing agendas, but complementary ones.

According to the study, a significant portion of Brazil’s environmental conservation already takes place within rural properties through Legal Reserves and Permanent Preservation Areas (APPs). In addition, there is a substantial amount of privately owned land with limited suitability for agriculture or livestock production that could be allocated to forest restoration. At the same time, demand for planted forests to supply bioenergy production continues to grow.

The second edition of the publication was developed by a coalition of institutions including Instituto Arapyaú, Instituto Itaúsa, Agroicone, the Brazilian Tree Industry (Ibá), the Brazil Climate, Forests and Agriculture Coalition, the Climate and Society Institute (iCS), Imazon, Amazônia 2030, CEBDS, and Uma Concertação pela Amazônia. One of its objectives is to influence the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) to recognize forests as central to carbon removal and storage efforts.

The new edition has received formal support from the COP30 Presidency. The material also served as an input for the organizations’ technical contributions to the Roadmap to Halt and Reverse Deforestation and Forest Degradation by 2030, proposed by the Brazilian COP30 Presidency.

The first edition of the report, launched during the conference in Belém, showed that Brazil could reverse the deforestation curve and expand its forests by 2035, increasing forest cover from 517 million to 525 million hectares within ten years. This gain of 8 million hectares — equivalent to twice the size of Switzerland — would directly increase carbon stocks and strengthen the country’s strategic role in global climate stability.

By offering a broad perspective on Brazil’s forest landscapes, the publication aims to identify challenges and outline pathways for reversing the historical loss of native vegetation and expanding forest cover once again. The analysis is structured around three pillars — conservation, forest restoration, and silviculture — and applies the internationally recognized concept of a “forest continuum,” which captures different forms of forest use and management across landscapes. Under this framework, preserved forests, sustainable forest management, restoration systems, and planted forests with native and exotic species coexist as part of a broader landscape strategy. According to the study, all these approaches can generate environmental and economic benefits, whether through biodiversity and water resource conservation, carbon sequestration, or supplying productive sectors.

In this edition, the authors expanded the scope of the analysis to include all of Brazil’s terrestrial biomes. In addition to the Amazon and Atlantic Forest, the study covers the Cerrado, Caatinga, Pantanal, Pampa, and Coastal Zone, highlighting the importance of these ecosystems for carbon removal, soil protection, water cycle regulation, and biodiversity conservation.

The report also emphasizes the strategic role of Indigenous Peoples and traditional communities in conserving Brazil’s forests. According to Imazon data, Indigenous Lands accounted for only 3% of all Amazon deforestation between 2012 and 2024, the lowest rate among all monitored territorial categories. The authors argue that strengthening territorial governance and expanding recognition of these populations as forest stewards will be essential for advancing conservation, restoration, and sustainable production.

Agribusiness and the Forest Transition

The connection between agribusiness and the forest transition operates through multiple pathways. A significant share of Brazil’s environmental conservation already occurs within private rural properties through Legal Reserves and Permanent Preservation Areas established under the Forest Code. The report reinforces that Brazil has already demonstrated its ability to reduce deforestation without harming agricultural production. Between 2004 and 2012, Amazon deforestation fell by 80%, while agricultural output in the region nearly doubled. During the same period, more than 55 million hectares were protected through conservation units.

Forests are also essential for maintaining the climatic conditions that sustain Brazilian agriculture, particularly through the so-called “flying rivers” — atmospheric moisture flows that transport rainfall from the Amazon to the country’s Center-South region. The publication cites an international study published in 2026 in Communications Earth & Environment (Nature Portfolio), according to which the Brazilian Legal Amazon generates rainfall worth approximately US$20 billion per year for agriculture.

Another major opportunity lies in forest restoration. According to the report, there is a substantial amount of privately owned land with limited suitability for agriculture or livestock production — such as highly degraded or steeply sloped areas — that could be dedicated to forest recovery. In addition to generating climate and biodiversity benefits, restoration helps landowners comply with environmental obligations under the Forest Code while creating opportunities for carbon credit generation and new income streams. By 2050, according to projections by the World Resources Institute (WRI), restoration could generate US$141 billion in Brazil through carbon markets, food production, biomaterials, and bioenergy.

A preliminary assessment conducted by Agroicone in partnership with Floraz — a business-led initiative created to strengthen the forest restoration sector in Brazil — identified millions of hectares with restoration potential on agribusiness-linked lands, particularly degraded pastures. The study combined public and private geospatial datasets to identify areas suitable for restoration with native species, considering criteria such as low agricultural suitability, absence of recent deforestation, property size, and proximity to timber industry hubs. Under a conservative scenario, approximately 2.6 million hectares suitable for restoration were identified across roughly 8,000 rural properties.

The expansion of corn ethanol production in Brazil has also increased, in some regions, the demand for forest biomass — especially eucalyptus and pine — used to generate thermal energy in processing plants, strengthening the connection between silviculture, bioenergy, and decarbonization strategies. During the 2024/2025 harvest season, corn ethanol accounted for 22% of total ethanol production in Brazil, reaching 8.2 million cubic meters. The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea) projects this figure could reach 22.55 million cubic meters by 2034/2035.

Adaptation: Forests Beyond Carbon

The global forest agenda is beginning to shift its focus. While recent years have centered on carbon sequestration and the generation of tradable carbon credits, the physical impacts of climate change are increasingly placing adaptation at the center of economic discussions.

The authors highlight that prolonged droughts, forest fires, extreme weather events, and water crises are already directly affecting productive sectors, infrastructure, and public finances. As a result, forests are increasingly viewed as a form of “natural infrastructure” capable of reducing climate risks, regulating rainfall patterns, protecting soils, and providing stability for agricultural, energy, and logistics systems.

According to the report, the economic value of forests extends far beyond carbon and is increasingly linked to their capacity to ensure resilience and economic continuity in a world facing growing climate instability.

However, the authors warn that financing for the forest agenda remains far below global needs. Despite growing recognition of forests’ strategic importance for climate stability, water security, and biodiversity, private capital continues to concentrate in markets perceived as less risky, leaving forest projects chronically underfunded. The publication argues that increasing financial flows alone will not be sufficient without structural changes in how the forest agenda is financed.

The report advocates for blended finance models that combine public and private resources, as well as de-risking mechanisms, financial guarantees, and project-finance-inspired structures to make forest investments more attractive. A particularly important trend is the growing attention given to funds directed toward Indigenous Peoples and local communities, which are increasingly recognized as essential actors in achieving long-term environmental outcomes.

The report concludes that the future of forest finance will depend on the intelligent combination of these instruments, rather than reliance on any single solution.