Amazônia 2030

Tag: forest restoration

  • The Leading Role of Brazilian Forests in the Global Climate Agenda

    The Leading Role of Brazilian Forests in the Global Climate Agenda


    Download here

    Brazil has the most favorable conditions on the planet to lead the global climate agenda through forest conservation, restoration, and forestry. This is the main conclusion of the study The Leadership of Brazilian Forests in the Global Climate Agenda, which presents consolidated data on the strategic role of Brazil’s forests in addressing the climate crisis.

    According to the report, forests are among the most scalable and cost-effective climate solutions currently available, absorbing approximately one-third of annual global greenhouse gas emissions generated by human activities. Without conserved, sustainably managed, and restored forests, achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement becomes impossible.

    Brazil occupies a central position in this context. The country is home to the world’s largest continuous area of tropical forests and holds the greatest global potential for forest restoration. Today, Brazil has approximately 500 million hectares of native forests, equivalent to nearly 60% of its national territory.

    Two Scenarios for 2035

    The study projects two scenarios for 2035. Under the baseline scenario, assuming average deforestation levels continue, the country would experience an estimated 1% loss in the carbon stock of its forest ecosystems.

    Under the potential scenario, with illegal deforestation reduced to near zero by 2030, expanded forest restoration, and growth in commercial forestry, Brazil could achieve a net gain of approximately 1% in forest carbon stocks, reversing the historical trend of forest loss.

    This progress could be achieved without competing with food production. The study indicates that vast areas of underutilized deforested land are available to support agricultural expansion while simultaneously enabling forest restoration and commercial tree planting.

    Forest Code and Market-Based Instruments

    Brazil already has a robust legal framework for forest protection, particularly through the Forest Code, which safeguards Permanent Preservation Areas (APPs) and Legal Reserves on rural properties. It is estimated that 215 million hectares are currently conserved or reforested within agricultural lands dedicated to food production.

    The report also highlights promising financial mechanisms to scale up conservation efforts, such as the Tropical Forests Forever Facility (TFFF) and Jurisdictional REDD+. Alongside these instruments, command-and-control policies combined with territorial planning have already demonstrated their effectiveness. Between 2004 and 2012, for example, deforestation in the Amazon was reduced by 80%.

    Expanding Forest Restoration and Commercial Forestry

    Forest restoration using native species is emerging as a new economic frontier, attracting private investment and potentially reaching millions of hectares by 2035.

    Meanwhile, commercial forestry based on exotic species—considered among the most competitive in the world—is expected to expand from 4 million hectares to as much as 6.2 million hectares over the next decade, primarily on previously degraded lands.

    Beyond carbon sequestration, Brazil’s forests play a crucial role in regulating rainfall patterns, ensuring water security, supporting agricultural production, and conserving biodiversity.

    According to the authors, consolidating Brazil’s leadership will require a combination of effective protection against illegal deforestation, expanded restoration efforts, strengthened bioeconomy initiatives, and the creation of financial mechanisms capable of transforming natural capital into a strategic asset for sustainable development.

    Read the full paper here.

  • The Forest-Climate Nexus for the Brazilian Amazon

    The Forest-Climate Nexus for the Brazilian Amazon


    Download here

    Developed from a mechanism created by CPI/PUC-Rio, the new study implements the Deforestation Reversal Mechanism (RDM) to restore forests at scale in the Amazon. The RDM was originally conceived after COP30 President, Ambassador André Corrêa do Lago, convened a council of economists to contribute to the economic dimensions of the conference, including the “Baku to Belém Roadmap for 1.3T” and the COP30 Action Agenda.

    The new analysis shows that the mechanism could generate US$784 billion over 30 years and capture up to 26 gigatons of CO₂ in the Brazilian Amazon, assuming a carbon price of US$50 per ton. This would turn forest restoration into a powerful driver of both economic growth and climate action. The RDM remunerates net tons of carbon recovered in deforested areas, creating new economic opportunities for the Amazon region and for Brazil.

    In practice, subnational or national governments sign carbon credit purchase agreements with public or private buyers, based on a pre-agreed price per ton of CO₂ removed from the atmosphere. The volume of credits is calculated from net forest restoration—i.e., after discounting any emissions from new deforestation—ensuring environmental integrity. The revenues can then be allocated to conservation, payments for ecosystem services, active forest restoration models, and social policies, creating an economic cycle that funds the transition toward a low-carbon development model in the Amazon.

    According to the analysis, Pará has the greatest potential, with 9.6 GtCO₂ and an estimated revenue of US$292 billion, followed by Mato Grosso (7.3 GtCO₂; US$221 billion) and Rondônia (3.5 GtCO₂; US$106 billion). States with large forest stocks, such as Amazonas, play a strategic role in conservation mechanisms. In total, 25.8 GtCO₂ could be removed from the atmosphere, generating financial returns equivalent to nearly 40% of Brazil’s annual GDP.

    “COP30 represents a historic opportunity to place forests at the center of the global climate solution. Brazil has the chance to show the world that development and conservation can go hand in hand, offering—through large-scale restoration—a concrete response to the climate crisis and a new economic pathway for the Amazon region,” said Beto Veríssimo, Special Envoy for Forests at COP30.

    In the Amazon, much of the land best suited for agricultural production has already been deforested in the past, while areas with the greatest carbon capture potential are located elsewhere. This means it is possible to intensify production in consolidated areas while restoring and conserving strategic climate zones—without sacrificing productivity. Instead of being mutually exclusive, agricultural production and restoration can coexist, generating economic and environmental benefits simultaneously. In other words, agriculture does not need to compete with deforestation reversal.

    “The RDM treats forest regeneration as a high-value economic asset, capable of generating revenue and delivering climate benefits simultaneously. By aligning policies and financial resources, the mechanism fills a central gap in large-scale restoration finance. This gives Brazil the opportunity to position itself as a global climate leader—turning Amazon restoration into a driver of development and of the valorization of its greatest natural asset: the forest,” said Juliano Assunção, Executive Director of CPI/PUC-Rio and one of the study’s authors.

    A New Financial Mechanism for the Forest

    The Deforestation Reversal Mechanism (RDM) remunerates net tons of carbon captured through restoration, with the potential to integrate into international carbon markets, including those under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. It complements existing mechanisms such as Jurisdictional REDD+ (JREDD+), which focuses on reducing deforestation, and the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF), which rewards forest conservation. Together, these mechanisms form a more complete financial architecture capable of supporting both protection and large-scale restoration.

    Combined, these mechanisms represent an unprecedented economic opportunity:

    • JREDD+ could generate around US$5 billion;

    • TFFF, around US$26 billion;

    • RDM, up to US$784 billion — significantly expanding the capacity to finance Amazon protection and restoration.

    How the Mechanism Works in Practice

    The process begins with identifying areas for restoration and measuring net carbon capture, discounting emissions from deforestation and degradation. These results are then converted into carbon credits, which can be traded in national or international markets at a pre-defined price per ton of CO₂.

    The resulting revenue is channeled into a jurisdictional fund, which allocates resources to restoration and conservation activities. This structure creates a virtuous financial cycle in which forest restoration generates revenue, funds its own expansion, and drives sustainable development in the Amazon.

    Brazil already has the technical and institutional infrastructure to implement the RDM swiftly and effectively. The country has advanced satellite monitoring systems—such as Deter, Prodes, MapBiomas, and SAD/Imazon—that enable accurate tracking of deforestation and vegetation regeneration.

    It also has the Rural Environmental Registry (CAR), which allows rural properties to be linked to environmental monitoring and enforcement. Additionally, Brazil has consolidated experience with results-based payment mechanisms, including the Amazon Fund, the National REDD+ Strategy, and successful subnational initiatives like Pará’s Sustainable Territories Program.

    This strong technical, legal, and institutional foundation provides the conditions to operationalize the RDM at scale—with international credibility.

    Read the full paper here.

  • The Vocation of Forest Restoration in the Amazon Based on Secondary Vegetation

    The Vocation of Forest Restoration in the Amazon Based on Secondary Vegetation


    Download here

    In 2023, 5.7 million hectares of secondary vegetation at least six years old were mapped in the Amazon biome, of which 4 million hectares are in areas with low agricultural potential—that is, they do not compete with grain cultivation. This figure reveals a major opportunity for conservation and environmental restoration in the region, according to the Amazônia 2030 project study The Potential for Forest Restoration in the Amazon Based on Secondary Vegetation.

    Forest restoration emerges as an essential strategy to mitigate climate change by removing large amounts of CO₂ from the atmosphere, recovering biodiversity, and strengthening ecological functions such as climate regulation and erosion control. In the Amazon biome, secondary vegetation plays a central role in this process, representing a large-scale, low-cost opportunity for environmental recovery.

    The states with the largest areas of secondary vegetation on lands with low agricultural suitability are Pará (1.88 million hectares), Amazonas (612 thousand hectares), and Mato Grosso (606 thousand hectares). Secondary vegetation in regions with high agricultural potential is most prevalent in Pará (676 thousand hectares) and Mato Grosso (481 thousand hectares).

    The study also highlights that secondary vegetation in areas with low agricultural suitability is concentrated mainly on private properties registered in the Land Management System (29%), undesignated public lands (16%), areas in the Rural Environmental Registry (CAR) (15%), and rural settlements (15%). These data reinforce the need for public policies that protect and encourage the restoration of these areas.

    Forest restoration and sustainable development

    The research indicates that ensuring the conservation of these areas requires a coordinated effort among public policies, economic incentives, and territorial governance strategies. Key recommendations include:

    • Creating a continuous monitoring system for secondary vegetation;
    • Prioritizing secondary vegetation in areas that do not compete with agricultural production for environmental regularization;
    • Broadly disseminating the economic and legal benefits of forest restoration;
    • Designating undesignated public lands for conservation and sustainable uses;
    • Implementing incentives for rural landowners who convert arable lands into forest areas;
    • Strengthening forest concessions as a strategy for the recovery of degraded lands.

    With a total of 29.7 million hectares of deforested areas with low suitability for grain production, there is enormous potential for forest restoration in the Amazon, especially through natural regeneration. This study underscores the need for concrete actions to ensure that secondary vegetation is protected and becomes a pillar of the national strategy to tackle climate change and promote sustainable development.

    Read the full paper here.

  • Forest Restoration in The Amazon: What is The Role of State-Level Public Policies?

    Forest Restoration in The Amazon: What is The Role of State-Level Public Policies?


    Download here

    Forest restoration in the Amazon could be one of the most powerful tools to reconcile environmental conservation, economic development, and climate action. With millions of hectares deforested and a high natural regeneration potential, the biome is uniquely positioned to lead a new forest-based economy—generating income through native forest products and carbon credits.

    But how are Amazonian states contributing to turning this potential into reality?

    That is the central question of a new study conducted by researchers from the Climate Policy Initiative/Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (CPI/PUC-Rio), in partnership with the Amazon 2030 project. The study analyzed the legal frameworks, programs, and instruments related to forest restoration across the seven Brazilian states where the Amazon biome is predominant: Acre, Amapá, Amazonas, Mato Grosso, Pará, Rondônia, and Roraima.

    Key findings:

    • Regional leadership: States such as Pará and Mato Grosso stand out for their early adoption of environmental policies, including pioneering Payment for Environmental Services (PES) and REDD+ initiatives—often ahead of the federal government.

    • Focus on mandatory restoration: Most state policies remain concentrated on legal obligations to restore degraded areas, with limited incentives for voluntary restoration.

    • Underused carbon market potential: With the exception of Pará, states have yet to fully leverage carbon markets as a financing strategy for forest restoration.

    • Bottlenecks in native species silviculture: Although crucial for combining restoration with income generation, the silviculture of native species faces regulatory barriers and lacks specific policy support.

    • Institutional fragmentation: Only Pará has developed a comprehensive and integrated native vegetation recovery plan. In other states, restoration actions are spread across disconnected policies, with limited coordination.

    Pará leads the way
    The state of Pará stands out for having launched Brazil’s first State Plan for Native Vegetation Recovery (PRVN), created forest restoration concessions, and recognized natural regeneration as a priority strategy. The state of Acre is also making progress, currently developing its own restoration plan.

    Unlocking the future
    To scale up forest restoration in the Amazon, the study highlights three urgent priorities:

    1. Harmonize restoration regulations across states

    2. Expand incentives for voluntary and productive restoration

    3. Link the restoration agenda to market-based mechanisms, such as carbon credits

    Read the full paper here.

  • Carbon And The Fate of The Amazon

    Carbon And The Fate of The Amazon


    Download here

    What would happen to the Amazon if countries paid for its captured CO2? Brazil’s entry into the carbon market with a minimum value of US$ 20 could transform Amazon’s future. This is the result of the unprecedented study released by Climate Policy Initiative/Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (CPI/PUC-RIO) and Amazon 2030 project.

    “The reference of US$20 per ton of CO2 captured is a baseline for negotiation, given that EEG emission permits in Europe have been traded at US$90 per ton of CO2. In this study, we are proposing carbon capture, which could be even more valuable.”, says Juliano Assunção, executive director of CPI/PUC-Rio and coordinator of Amazon 2030.

    Carbon prices exceeding US$ 20 per ton of CO2 would be transformative for the Amazon. Under this scenario, the forest would no longer be a net carbon emitter and would capture CO2 on a large scale. “Every time we deforest the Amazon, we lose a significant part of our carbon stock. The study shows an efficient approach to eliminate deforestation and promote forest restoration while simultaneously increasing our profits.”, says José Alexandre Scheinkman, professor at Columbia University and collaborator of Amazon 2030.

    Almost 90% of deforested areas in the Amazon biome were used for cattle ranching. Data from System for Estimating Emissions and Removals of Greenhouse Gas (SEEG) indicates that agriculture and deforestation together account for almost three quarters of the country’s GHG emissions. Starting from US$ 20 per ton of CO2, the revenue from carbon (US$ 320 billion over 30 years) would compensate for the loss of revenue in cattle activities.

    “The minimum value of US$ 20 eliminates deforestation and promotes forest restoration. It would be more economically advantageous to turn most of the areas currently devoted to cattle ranching into areas destined for forest restoration through natural regeneration. We would be reconnecting the forest with its past and making more productive land use. Currently, there are many underused areas.”, explains Assunção.

    To assess the consequences of a payment for captured carbon, researchers developed a model considering the carbon cycle, agricultural dynamics, conservation of standing forests, and Amazon restoration, taking into account the forest heterogeneity.

    “We evaluated the impact of different carbon capture compensation scenarios in the Brazilian Amazon, developing a dynamic spatial model to examine the complex trade-offs in time and space between land use for cattle ranching and forest restoration and conservation.”, says Scheinkman.

    The Brazilian Amazon accounts for approximately 50% of national GHG emissions. At US$ 20 per ton of CO2, the Amazon would capture around 16 Gt CO2 in 30 years. By eliminating deforestation, Brazil would avoid emitting 32 Gt CO2, which would amount to 48 Gt CO2 over the next 30 years. This is nearly equivalent to global emissions in one year.

    This study shows that, in the absence of payments from other countries, current efforts to combat deforestation will not be sufficient to prevent the expansion of cattle ranching. Researchers predict an increase in deforestation driving the Amazon dangerously close to a tipping point in under two decades. If the Amazon reaches this critical point, it could release approximately 32 billion tons of CO2 over the next 30 years, potentially leading to a global climate collapse.

    “A robust payment mechanism for forest carbon can generate significant impacts at regional, national, and global levels. The proposed model focuses on removing carbon from the atmosphere by means of natural forest restoration, which directly contributes to the climate mitigation agenda. By doing this, we can avoid reaching a tipping point and gain more time to address the climate crisis. The same model can be replicated to other Amazon countries, in the Congo Basin and Indonesia.”

    Read the full paper here.

  • Large Scale Forest Restoration in The Amazon: The Potential of Secondary Vegetation

    Large Scale Forest Restoration in The Amazon: The Potential of Secondary Vegetation


    Download here

    Brazil has a goal of restoring at least 12 million hectares of native forests by 2030 (Brazil 2017). This goal was presented in international commitments of the climate and landscape restoration agendas, under the Paris Agreement, the Bonn Challenge, and the 20×20 Initiative. Specifically for the Amazon biome, Brazil’s National Plan for the Restoration of Native Vegetation (Plano Nacional de Recuperação da Vegetação Nativa – Planaveg) sets the goal of restoring 4.8 million hectares of native vegetation (MAPA 2017).

    The Amazon forest has a high capacity for natural regeneration, i.e., for restoring its functionalities and physical structure through ecological succession, with an eventual need for some assistance. This happens as long as the conditions for guaranteeing its resilience remains present. The existence of a seed and seedling bank, seed dispersers and pollinators, and
    remaining forests in the vicinity of the area to be restored are essential conditions for natural regeneration to take place.

    The natural regeneration of the forest is also key to recovering forest liabilities (legal reserve and permanent preservation areas) within the scope of the Forest Code (Código Florestal – CF). In addition, it can help Brazil achieve goals for forest restoration and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Finally, it also contributes to the conservation of biodiversity and the provision of environmental services.

    This study, which is part of the Amazon 2030 (AMZ 2030), intends to analyze the potential of natural regeneration in the Amazon biome, as well as provide details on the territories where secondary vegetation is located. The objective is to support the work of public policy makers and contribute to a better use of natural regeneration in Brazil in the coming decades.

    The natural regeneration process poses challenges for its characterization through satellite images. For example, it is very difficult to distinguish fallow areas, where vegetation regrowth is temporary (usually up to 5 years), from abandoned areas, where regeneration tends to be more perennial. For this reason, in the analyzes of this study, we used secondary vegetation 6 years or older.

    We assessed the status of natural regeneration or secondary vegetation in the Amazon biome for 2019, based on Collection 5 of the MapBiomas Project. These analyzes were aimed at answering the following questions:

    i) What is the potential of secondary vegetation in the region?; and

    ii) Where are the areas of secondary vegetation of the Amazon biome considering occupation zones, political geography, land classes, among others.

    In 2019, we identified an area of 7.2 million hectares of secondary vegetation with a minimum age of 6 years in the Amazon biome, equivalent to the territory of Ireland.

    We also looked at the length of survival and the rate of suppression of secondary vegetation. First, we found that the majority (62%) of the 7.2 million hectares are over 10 years old and the rest (38%), between 6 and 10 years old. Second, we estimated an average annual clearing of native vegetation of 236,000 hectares in the Amazon biome between 1992 and 2019.

    In terms of geographic location of secondary vegetation (7.2 million hectares), the observed pattern was as follows: first, there is a greater concentration of natural regeneration in the old occupation zone (arc of deforestation); second, Pará is home to 42% of this natural regeneration, followed by far by Mato Grosso and Amazonas (17% each); third, private properties (titled properties) hold 26% of this natural regeneration and agrarian reform settlements 15%; another 11% are in areas with a Rural Environmental Registry (Cadastro Ambiental Rural – CAR) and 19% of them are in undesignated public forests; finally, the remainder (29%) is distributed among other land ownership categories.

    The results above illustrate a great potential for forest restoration in the Amazon. If, on the one hand, the size of the area under regeneration for at least 6 years illustrates the enormous waste in relation to deforestation that has occurred in recent decades, on the other hand, it points to promising paths for public policy and other initiatives associated with the climate agenda.

    In terms of public policy, these areas are outside the system for monitoring and combating deforestation and could be better integrated into the implementation of the Forest Code. In particular, we recommend: (i) implementation of the CAR and Environmental Regularization Programs (Programas de Regularização Ambiental – PRAs) in the states; (ii) monitoring of secondary vegetation and (iii) prioritization of areas with secondary vegetation. Furthermore, the results show that the Amazon is very well positioned for recent initiatives aimed at the bioeconomy of forest restoration and also for a growing interest from the so-called voluntary carbon markets in arrangements to offset greenhouse gas emissions.