Amazônia 2030

Tag: population

  • State of the Brazilian Amazon

    State of the Brazilian Amazon


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    The State of the Brazilian Amazon is an unprecedented compilation that brings together some of the main findings of the Amazônia 2030 Project, organized specifically to mark the UN Climate Conference taking place in Belém do Pará. More than just a statistical snapshot, this edition aims to serve as a guide for those seeking to understand the heterogeneity and richness of the Amazon, gathering essential data on the region’s territory, population, environment, and economy at a decisive moment for the planet’s future.

    The 30th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30) will bring together leaders from nearly 200 countries, as well as scientists and civil society representatives, to discuss commitments and actions to tackle the climate crisis. For the first time, the event will be held in the heart of the Amazon, underscoring the biome’s central role in the planet’s future.

    Key Highlights

    Territory and Population: The Legal Amazon covers 59% of Brazil, with 5 million km² and 26.7 million inhabitants (13% of the national population) distributed across 773 municipalities.

    Five Amazons: The report classifies the region into five distinct zones — forest (39% of the area), under pressure (29%), deforested (11%), non-forest/Cerrado (21%), and urban (76% of the population).

    Deforestation: Although declining since 2021, it remains critical. The total deforested area reached 857,000 km² by 2024, equivalent to 20.6% of the original forest cover. States such as Maranhão (65.9%), Mato Grosso (35.3%), and Pará (26.4%) have lost significant portions of their vegetation.

    Fires: In 2024, the region recorded 192,700 fire hotspots, the highest number since 2014 — a 52% increase compared to 2023, driven mainly by Mato Grosso (+133%) and Roraima (+102%).

    Emissions: The Legal Amazon accounted for 1.1 billion tons of CO₂ in 2023, nearly half of Brazil’s emissions. Net emissions were 602 million tons, representing 36% of the country’s net total.

    Bioeconomy: The 10 main products of the region generated billions in 2023. Açaí led with R$ 8.9 billion, followed by canephora coffee (R$ 2.5 billion), banana (R$ 2.4 billion), cocoa (R$ 2.1 billion), and Brazil nuts (R$ 172 million).

    Poverty: In 2024, around 10 million people were living in poverty in the region, equivalent to 36% of the Legal Amazon’s population — above the national average.

    Violence: The homicide rate remains high, reaching 32.9 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2023, still above the national average.

    The study shows that the Amazon is not a single reality but multiple Amazons combining different levels of conservation, land use, and social conditions. Recognizing this diversity is essential for formulating policies that reconcile environmental conservation, social inclusion, and economic prosperity.

    The COP30 Edition of Fatos da Amazônia was supported by Fundo Vale, Instituto Itaúsa, the Institute for Climate and Society (iCS), and the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation.

    Read the full paper here.

  • The Amazon Paradox

    The Amazon Paradox


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    The recent history of the Brazilian Amazon is marked by rapid population growth and an explosive increase in deforestation. In the last 50 years, deforestation has gone from a mere 0.5% in 1975 to 21% in 2021. Put together, the accumulated destruction of around 86 million hectares of forests is equivalent to the sum of the areas of Spain and Italy. In addition, extensive areas of remaining forests are degraded by fires and illegal logging. Finally, the local population quadrupled in the same period, from about 7 million in 1970 to approximately 28 million people in 2021.

    This process was accompanied by serious social conflicts and resulted in the worst of all possible scenarios: environmental destruction, low quality of life for the population, an economy with limited growth, and very high carbon emissions. In fact, in 2019, the Brazilian Amazon contributed less than 9% of the country’s GDP and generated 48% of Brazil’s Greenhouse Gas emissions. The majority of these were due to deforestation and fires.

    The Amazon region is suffering from record deforestation rates, violence, and worsening social conditions. However, each of the factors that contribute to the current crisis presents elements that can serve as a foundation for sustainability in the region. This context constitutes the Amazon paradox, namely that it is possible that a new model of regional development, one based on the sustainable use of the forest’s natural resources, may emerge from an apparently unsolvable situation.

    Read the full paper here.

  • The Amazon Paradox

    The Amazon Paradox


    Download here

    The recent history of the Brazilian Amazon is marked by rapid population growth and an explosive increase in deforestation. In the last 50 years, deforestation has gone from a mere 0.5% in 1975 to 21% in 2021. Put together, the accumulated destruction of around 86 million hectares of forests is equivalent to the sum of the areas of Spain and Italy. In addition, extensive areas of remaining forests are degraded by fires and illegal logging. Finally, the local population quadrupled in the same period, from about 7 million in 1970 to approximately 28 million people in 2021.

    This process was accompanied by serious social conflicts and resulted in the worst of all possible scenarios: environmental destruction, low quality of life for the population, an economy with limited growth, and very high carbon emissions. In fact, in 2019, the Brazilian Amazon contributed less than 9% of the country’s GDP and generated 48% of Brazil’s Greenhouse Gas emissions. The majority of these were due to deforestation and fires.

    The Amazon region is suffering from record deforestation rates, violence, and worsening social conditions. However, each of the factors that contribute to the current crisis presents elements that can serve as a foundation for sustainability in the region. This context constitutes the Amazon paradox, namely that it is possible that a new model of regional development, one based on the sustainable use of the forest’s natural resources, may emerge from an apparently unsolvable situation.

    Read the full paper here.