Amazônia 2030

Tag: cattle ranching

  • How Livestock Farming Can Lead Brazil’s Climate Action

    How Livestock Farming Can Lead Brazil’s Climate Action


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    Brazilian cattle ranching — currently responsible for most of the country’s greenhouse gas emissions — can also become the main lever to reduce deforestation and accelerate the climate transition in Brazil. This is the central finding of the new study “How Cattle Ranching Can Lead Brazil’s Climate Action”, published by the Amazônia 2030 project.

    According to the study, cattle ranching occupies 64% of Brazil’s agricultural land — more than 160 million hectares — but generates only 17% of the sector’s gross production value. In the Legal Amazon, 80% of agricultural land (75 million hectares) is covered by pastures, of which 54% are degraded. This extensive, low-productivity model is closely linked to the main drivers of deforestation in both the Amazon and Cerrado biomes.

    “The study shows that increasing cattle productivity in already cleared areas, with proper technical assistance and well-targeted credit, is more efficient and cheaper than continuing to deforest,” explains Paulo Barreto, researcher at Imazon and co-author of the study. With well-designed policies, it is possible to maintain production, reduce emissions, and conserve the forest.

    Three Recommendations for More Sustainable Cattle Ranching

    The study outlines three key guidelines to align cattle ranching with Brazil’s climate goals and its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC):

    1. Target investments in high-impact zones — Areas within a 60 km radius of slaughterhouses concentrate 96% of processing capacity and already have better infrastructure and fewer embargoes. Prioritizing policies in these regions accelerates productivity gains and reduces pressure on the forest.

    2. Reorient rural credit toward productivity and climate goals — Only 30% of the R$ 8.5 billion contracted in 2023 in the Amazon was allocated to actions that increase productivity. Better allocation of these resources could restore 216,000 hectares of pasture per year, offsetting the average expansion of the past decade and reducing direct emissions per kilogram of beef by up to 74%.

    3. Eliminate incentives for speculative deforestation — Allocate approximately 50 million hectares of undesignated public forests (19 million federal and 31 million state-owned) to conservation, Indigenous territories, and protected areas. This would address the root causes of illegal deforestation and reduce financial risks for the country.

    Cattle ranching is the main source of emissions in the agricultural sector, which accounts for about 75% of Brazil’s greenhouse gas emissions. Environmental degradation has a direct economic impact: according to the Central Bank, cattle ranching is the most exposed sector to climate transition risks, with a credit portfolio estimated at R$ 130 billion (2022). Extreme climate events are already affecting the country’s financial stability, with 44% of financial institutions reporting impacts in 2024.

    For the researchers, COP30, which will take place in Belém in November 2025, represents a historic opportunity for Brazil to present a robust climate transition plan anchored in low-carbon cattle ranching.

    “The transition to more efficient and deforestation-free cattle ranching is not only possible, but necessary for the future of the Amazon and the global climate,” Barreto emphasizes.

    Read the full paper here.

  • Lessons From The Expansion of Cattle Ranching in Brazil (2000–2023) For Sustainable And Efficient Production

    Lessons From The Expansion of Cattle Ranching in Brazil (2000–2023) For Sustainable And Efficient Production


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    Cattle ranching occupies 64% of Brazil’s agricultural area but contributes only 17% of the sector’s gross production value, reflecting inefficient land use and structural challenges. An unprecedented study by the Amazônia 2030 project analyzes the expansion of cattle ranching between 2000 and 2023 and points to pathways to transform the sector, ensuring greater productivity and sustainability.

    The survey highlights that 64% of pastures (105 million hectares) are of low or intermediate quality and that the sector was responsible for 51% of the country’s greenhouse gas emissions, mainly due to deforestation. Between 2000 and 2023, Brazilian cattle ranching made important gains in productivity, driven by economic incentives and environmental pressures, but it still faces structural bottlenecks.

    The study, conducted by researchers Paulo Barreto, Arthur José da Silva Rocha, Amintas Brandão, Ritaumaria Pereira, and Gabriel Salles Barreto, notes that policies such as the Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Deforestation in the Legal Amazon (PPCDAm) and the Soy Moratorium reduced deforestation by about 80% between 2003 and 2012, encouraging more productive practices. However, the growth of the activity still pressures the forest: for every hectare of pasture rehabilitated in Brazil, one hectare of forest was cleared; in the Amazon, that number rises to 2.35 hectares. By contrast, only 0.2% of degraded pastures were rehabilitated.

    The research also shows that while the supply of rural credit has grown, it remains poorly distributed. In 2023, only 23% of resources were applied to productivity—such as pasture recovery and artificial insemination—while most was directed to cattle purchases, without robust environmental or productivity targets.

    With a stock of R$ 1 trillion in subsidized private credit without sustainability requirements, the study underscores that there is enormous potential to leverage more responsible practices in the sector.

    Recommendations for a more sustainable sector
    The study proposes a set of recommendations to reverse this situation, including:

    – Strengthening efforts to combat deforestation and ensuring the proper allocation of public lands;
    – Conditioning rural credit on productivity and sustainability targets, with technical assistance for small and medium producers;
    – Directing infrastructure and incentives to priority areas where pasture recovery is more feasible;
    – Expanding transparency in the supply chain, ensuring traceability of cattle origin and greater commitment from meatpackers and investors to sustainable practices.

    “Over the past 23 years, the expansion of cattle ranching shows that it is possible to increase productivity while reducing deforestation through practical incentives and environmental enforcement. However, failures in public and private policies have prevented faster, broader, and longer-lasting progress in best practices. As a result, nearly half of pastures are degraded while deforestation for cattle ranching continues. In the face of an intensifying climate crisis, especially reduced rainfall, opportunities for the productive use of degraded pastures tend to shrink dramatically. Global warming follows immutable physical laws: the higher the greenhouse gas emissions, the faster and more intense climate change will be. Therefore, politicians and business leaders cannot hesitate. Only through robust and committed collaboration will it be possible to mitigate the environmental impacts of cattle ranching and promote sustainable development in territories where the activity still operates with low productivity,” the study emphasizes.

    Read the full paper here.

  • Carbon And The Fate of The Amazon

    Carbon And The Fate of The Amazon


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    What would happen to the Amazon if countries paid for its captured CO2? Brazil’s entry into the carbon market with a minimum value of US$ 20 could transform Amazon’s future. This is the result of the unprecedented study released by Climate Policy Initiative/Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (CPI/PUC-RIO) and Amazon 2030 project.

    “The reference of US$20 per ton of CO2 captured is a baseline for negotiation, given that EEG emission permits in Europe have been traded at US$90 per ton of CO2. In this study, we are proposing carbon capture, which could be even more valuable.”, says Juliano Assunção, executive director of CPI/PUC-Rio and coordinator of Amazon 2030.

    Carbon prices exceeding US$ 20 per ton of CO2 would be transformative for the Amazon. Under this scenario, the forest would no longer be a net carbon emitter and would capture CO2 on a large scale. “Every time we deforest the Amazon, we lose a significant part of our carbon stock. The study shows an efficient approach to eliminate deforestation and promote forest restoration while simultaneously increasing our profits.”, says José Alexandre Scheinkman, professor at Columbia University and collaborator of Amazon 2030.

    Almost 90% of deforested areas in the Amazon biome were used for cattle ranching. Data from System for Estimating Emissions and Removals of Greenhouse Gas (SEEG) indicates that agriculture and deforestation together account for almost three quarters of the country’s GHG emissions. Starting from US$ 20 per ton of CO2, the revenue from carbon (US$ 320 billion over 30 years) would compensate for the loss of revenue in cattle activities.

    “The minimum value of US$ 20 eliminates deforestation and promotes forest restoration. It would be more economically advantageous to turn most of the areas currently devoted to cattle ranching into areas destined for forest restoration through natural regeneration. We would be reconnecting the forest with its past and making more productive land use. Currently, there are many underused areas.”, explains Assunção.

    To assess the consequences of a payment for captured carbon, researchers developed a model considering the carbon cycle, agricultural dynamics, conservation of standing forests, and Amazon restoration, taking into account the forest heterogeneity.

    “We evaluated the impact of different carbon capture compensation scenarios in the Brazilian Amazon, developing a dynamic spatial model to examine the complex trade-offs in time and space between land use for cattle ranching and forest restoration and conservation.”, says Scheinkman.

    The Brazilian Amazon accounts for approximately 50% of national GHG emissions. At US$ 20 per ton of CO2, the Amazon would capture around 16 Gt CO2 in 30 years. By eliminating deforestation, Brazil would avoid emitting 32 Gt CO2, which would amount to 48 Gt CO2 over the next 30 years. This is nearly equivalent to global emissions in one year.

    This study shows that, in the absence of payments from other countries, current efforts to combat deforestation will not be sufficient to prevent the expansion of cattle ranching. Researchers predict an increase in deforestation driving the Amazon dangerously close to a tipping point in under two decades. If the Amazon reaches this critical point, it could release approximately 32 billion tons of CO2 over the next 30 years, potentially leading to a global climate collapse.

    “A robust payment mechanism for forest carbon can generate significant impacts at regional, national, and global levels. The proposed model focuses on removing carbon from the atmosphere by means of natural forest restoration, which directly contributes to the climate mitigation agenda. By doing this, we can avoid reaching a tipping point and gain more time to address the climate crisis. The same model can be replicated to other Amazon countries, in the Congo Basin and Indonesia.”

    Read the full paper here.

  • Policies to Develop Cattle Ranching in The Amazon Without Deforestation

    Policies to Develop Cattle Ranching in The Amazon Without Deforestation


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    Imagine that a presidential candidate asks for help in drawing up his/her agricultural development plan for the Amazon. He/she asks: Is it possible to develop agriculture without deforesting the Amazon? If so, how?

    This report answers the questions of this imaginary politician. In it, we show that it is possible to develop agriculture in the Amazon without deforesting using tried-and-true policies and techniques. Therefore, the government should coordinate policies and maintain the discipline to carry them out in the same way that it was and is necessary to control inflation.

    In drafting a government plan, politicians must consider the forces that encourage deforestation and the barriers to the adoption of best agricultural practices. This report focuses on cattle ranching, as pastures cover about 90% of the deforested areas in the Amazon biome.

    Read the full paper here.