Amazônia 2030

Tag: amazon

  • To Protect the Amazon – We Have to Reforest It

    To Protect the Amazon – We Have to Reforest It


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    The conversion of already deforested areas into sustainable productive systems can generate green jobs, increase regional income, and reduce pressure on the forest, according to a new study showing that the Amazon has 35 million hectares available for productive reforestation and currently captures only 3% of a global US$233 billion market in forest-compatible products. Authored by Salo Coslovsky and Beto Veríssimo, the study from the Amazônia 2030 project details how this strategy can reconcile environmental protection with economic development, proposing a national program built on state coordination, technology, and land tenure security.

    The Policy Brief, “To protect the Amazon rainforest, we need to reforest the deforested areas,” presents a broad and feasible proposal to simultaneously address two historical challenges in the region: the lack of economic opportunities and the fragility of conservation efforts. The study shows that productive reforestation—recovering already cleared and currently underused areas through agroforestry systems, silviculture, and ecological restoration—can create quality jobs, increase incomes for Amazonian residents, and curb the advance of illegal activities that pressure the forest.

    Among the key messages highlighted in the document are:

    • Restoring degraded areas is the key to breaking the impasse between development and conservation.

    • The Amazon has about 35 million hectares available for productive reforestation, with no need for additional clearing.

    • The region generates US$7.2 billion per year from forest-compatible products, but this represents only 3% of a total market worth US$233 billion.

    • Without green jobs, environmental protection is fragile, and recent setbacks show that conservation alone is not enough.

    • A national productive reforestation program can generate income, capture carbon, restore ecosystems, and strengthen already established value chains.

    The study notes that between 2013 and 2024, the Amazon lost 4.6 million more hectares of forest than it would have lost had deforestation remained at the historic 2012 low. The creation of protected areas stagnated, and the grabbing of public forestlands increased, while federal and state lawmakers weakened environmental protections.

    This scenario is worsened by the lack of green jobs and sustainable businesses, which drives part of the population toward predatory activities such as illegal mining, land grabbing, and extensive cattle ranching. According to the authors, there will be no lasting conservation without local prosperity—and the solution lies in the areas that are already cleared.

    Why productive reforestation works


    The study demonstrates that productive reforestation has the conditions needed to be implemented at scale:

    • There is real and growing demand for products such as açaí, cacao, bananas, cassava, fibers, and palm species.

    • Modern agriculture has become technology-intensive, generating skilled jobs in both rural and urban areas.

    • The forest restoration and carbon capture market is expanding, offering new revenue opportunities.

    • The Amazon already has experienced entrepreneurs in these value chains and concrete examples of success.

    • Brazil has accumulated important lessons on how to design effective productive development policies.

     

    The authors propose a National Productive Reforestation Program built on five pillars:

     

    1. Resolve land tenure issues, protecting public forests and regularizing long-deforested private lands.

    2. Expand long-term financing, using future contracts—including carbon—as guarantees.

    3. Develop technology and local capacity, focusing on advanced rural operations and agroforestry systems.

    4. Reorient productive development policies to support established and competitive value chains.

    5. Coordinate state action, ensuring predictability, scale, and clear targets.

    Brazil has the conditions to move quickly on a program with simultaneous economic, social, and environmental impact. “Productive reforestation increases productivity, generates green jobs, and strengthens conservation. The Amazon can prosper without clearing more forest, and the country needs to act now,” the researchers say.

    Read the full paper here.

  • When the Rivers Run Dry: How Amazon Deforestation Threatens the Brazilian Economy

    When the Rivers Run Dry: How Amazon Deforestation Threatens the Brazilian Economy


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    The Amazon Rainforest is not only an environmental treasure but also an invaluable economic asset for Brazil. A new report by the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI/PUC-Rio) and the Amazônia 2030 project shows how deforestation in the Amazon impacts the so-called flying rivers — moisture currents formed by the forest’s evapotranspiration — compromising water supply and climate stability in several regions of the country.

    According to the study, the loss of forest cover already generates billions of reais in annual economic damage, especially to the energy sector. Hydropower plants such as Itaipu and Belo Monte alone have lost the potential to generate 3,700 GWh per year — equivalent to the total electricity consumption of the entire state of Rondônia — representing more than R$ 1 billion in annual losses.

    Impacts across multiple sectors

    The report reveals that the effects of deforestation also threaten other key sectors beyond energy:

    • Water supply: critical systems like Cantareira (SP) lie along the path of the flying rivers and could face reduced water availability, especially during drought periods.

    • Agriculture: rain-dependent crops such as soy, corn, and sugarcane face increasing risks; drought-related losses reached R$ 186 billion between 2013 and 2022.

    • Wildfires: reduced rainfall weakens vegetation resilience, increasing fire risks — more than 30 million hectares were affected in 2024.

    • Waterways: record droughts have disrupted grain transportation, potentially undermining Brazil’s competitiveness in global trade.

    Keeping the forest standing as a national strategy

    The researchers warn that by 2050, up to 47% of the Amazon may experience disturbances that would irreversibly compromise the provision of ecosystem services.

    “Protecting the Amazon is not just an environmental agenda — it is a strategic imperative for Brazil’s energy, water, and food security,”
    say authors Gustavo Pinto and João Pedro Arbache, from CPI/PUC-Rio.

    The study underscores that public policies to curb deforestation — such as PPCDAm, which reduced the forest destruction rate fivefold between 2004 and 2014 — are essential to keeping the country on a sustainable growth trajectory.

    Read the full paper here.

  • LANDING ON WATER: Air Interdiction, Drug Trafficking and Violence in the Brazilian Amazon

    LANDING ON WATER: Air Interdiction, Drug Trafficking and Violence in the Brazilian Amazon


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    The air interdiction policy implemented in Brazil in 2004 brought a series of consequences for drug trafficking in the Amazon, leading to a shift of air routes to the region’s rivers and contributing to increased violence. This is the main conclusion of the study “Landing on Water: Air Interdiction, Drug Trafficking, and Violence in the Brazilian Amazon”, published by the Amazônia 2030 project.

    The restriction on the use of airplanes for cocaine transport made air logistics riskier and more expensive, pushing traffickers to use Amazonian waterways. This shift exposed riverside communities to organized crime, resulting in a sharp increase in violence. Between 2005 and 2020, about 1,430 homicides in municipalities along Amazonian rivers were directly linked to this change in trafficking.

    According to the study conducted by researchers Leila Pereira, Rafael Pucci, and Rodrigo R. Soares, the restriction on air traffic forced traffickers to turn to river routes, directly affecting riverside communities.

    “Air interdiction directly impacted the logistics of drug trafficking in the region, displacing criminal activity to areas previously less exposed, such as the banks of the Amazon rivers. This brought additional challenges for security forces and for local communities, which began living more closely with this criminal dynamic,” explains Rodrigo R. Soares.

    The study also reveals that the rise in homicides was directly related to the increase in cocaine production in the Andean countries (Bolivia, Colombia, and Peru). Beyond the rise in homicides, the study points to an increase in overdose deaths, indicating greater availability of cocaine in the affected municipalities. The research also shows that organized crime demonstrated a high capacity for adaptation, using local networks and technologies to maintain its operations despite intensified air enforcement.

    The researchers warn of the need for a more integrated approach to combating trafficking, avoiding isolated measures that may generate collateral impacts. “Public security policies must take into account the displacements of organized crime and their effects on local communities. Combating trafficking in the Amazon requires strategies that consider different modes of transport and the region’s social realities,” the study highlights.

    Read the full paper here.

  • Forest Restoration in The Amazon: What is The Role of State-Level Public Policies?

    Forest Restoration in The Amazon: What is The Role of State-Level Public Policies?


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    Forest restoration in the Amazon could be one of the most powerful tools to reconcile environmental conservation, economic development, and climate action. With millions of hectares deforested and a high natural regeneration potential, the biome is uniquely positioned to lead a new forest-based economy—generating income through native forest products and carbon credits.

    But how are Amazonian states contributing to turning this potential into reality?

    That is the central question of a new study conducted by researchers from the Climate Policy Initiative/Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (CPI/PUC-Rio), in partnership with the Amazon 2030 project. The study analyzed the legal frameworks, programs, and instruments related to forest restoration across the seven Brazilian states where the Amazon biome is predominant: Acre, Amapá, Amazonas, Mato Grosso, Pará, Rondônia, and Roraima.

    Key findings:

    • Regional leadership: States such as Pará and Mato Grosso stand out for their early adoption of environmental policies, including pioneering Payment for Environmental Services (PES) and REDD+ initiatives—often ahead of the federal government.

    • Focus on mandatory restoration: Most state policies remain concentrated on legal obligations to restore degraded areas, with limited incentives for voluntary restoration.

    • Underused carbon market potential: With the exception of Pará, states have yet to fully leverage carbon markets as a financing strategy for forest restoration.

    • Bottlenecks in native species silviculture: Although crucial for combining restoration with income generation, the silviculture of native species faces regulatory barriers and lacks specific policy support.

    • Institutional fragmentation: Only Pará has developed a comprehensive and integrated native vegetation recovery plan. In other states, restoration actions are spread across disconnected policies, with limited coordination.

    Pará leads the way
    The state of Pará stands out for having launched Brazil’s first State Plan for Native Vegetation Recovery (PRVN), created forest restoration concessions, and recognized natural regeneration as a priority strategy. The state of Acre is also making progress, currently developing its own restoration plan.

    Unlocking the future
    To scale up forest restoration in the Amazon, the study highlights three urgent priorities:

    1. Harmonize restoration regulations across states

    2. Expand incentives for voluntary and productive restoration

    3. Link the restoration agenda to market-based mechanisms, such as carbon credits

    Read the full paper here.

  • Legal Gold Garimpo in The Amazon: Recommendations For Adequate Control of Socio-Environmental Impacts

    Legal Gold Garimpo in The Amazon: Recommendations For Adequate Control of Socio-Environmental Impacts


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    A new study by researchers from Climate Policy Initiative/Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (CPI/PUC-Rio) and the Amazon 2030 project reveals that legal gold mining (garimpo) in the Amazon causes widespread deforestation, pollution, and social harm—similar to or even exceeding the impact of illegal mining in some cases. The report warns that Brazil’s outdated regulations are not equipped to deal with the industrial scale of today’s gold garimpo and offers recommendations to strengthen environmental safeguards at the federal and state levels.

    Gold is the most mined mineral in Brazil, and 92% of all garimpo areas—both legal and illegal—are located in the Amazon. While authorities have cracked down on illegal garimpo in Indigenous Lands and protected areas, especially in the Yanomami territory, the study highlights that legal mining operations also pose serious threats due to regulatory loopholes, weak licensing practices, and lack of transparency.

    Key findings from the report:

    • Legal gold mining is expanding fast: Between 2016 and 2023, 82% of all new legal gold mining permits in Brazil were granted in the Amazon. The states of Pará and Mato Grosso alone account for 99% of these permits.

    • Cooperatives dominate legal garimpo: Garimpo cooperatives operate areas 178% larger than those of individual miners and even twice the size of mining companies. This shows a shift from artisanal to business-scale operations.

    • Regulation is outdated: Brazil’s Mining Code and related laws treat garimpo as a small-scale activity, allowing it to bypass key requirements like prior deposit discovery studies. As a result, environmental damage often goes unmonitored.

    • Environmental licensing in Pará is too lenient: Although mining is officially classified as a high-impact activity, the state of Pará has delegated garimpo licensing to municipalities using a simplified, single-stage process. This weakens oversight and contradicts federal norms. The issue is currently being reviewed by Brazil’s Supreme Court (STF).

    • Lack of transparency: Licensing data is fragmented and hard to access, especially in Pará. This prevents effective monitoring and enforcement, increasing the risk of gold laundering and environmental harm.

    The researchers warn that ongoing legislative proposals in Brazil’s Congress could further weaken garimpo oversight by expanding legal mining without addressing current regulatory gaps.

    Recommendations from the study include:

    • Updating federal legislation to reflect the real scale of garimpo operations;

    • Requiring deposit discovery studies for garimpo cooperatives;

    • Strengthening environmental licensing procedures, especially at the state level;

    • Increasing transparency in licensing and monitoring;

    • Halting legislative efforts that expand garimpo without reforming its regulatory framework.

    Read the full paper here.

  • The Amazon in The New PAC: Recommendations to Promote Sustainable Infrastructure

    The Amazon in The New PAC: Recommendations to Promote Sustainable Infrastructure


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    In August 2023, the federal government launched a new edition of the Growth Acceleration Program (Novo PAC), promising to boost the national economy through infrastructure investments aligned with the Ecological Transformation Plan. However, a new analysis by the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI/PUC-Rio), in collaboration with the Amazônia 2030 project, warns that the program risks repeating past mistakes and exacerbating inequalities if it fails to incorporate a strategic and tailored vision for the Amazon.

    Authored by researchers Joana Chiavari (Research Director, CPI/PUC-Rio), Gabriel Cozendey, and Luiza Antonaccio (Senior Legal Analysts, CPI/PUC-Rio), the study assesses how the planned investments under Novo PAC affect the Amazon region across four crucial sectors: logistics, connectivity, sanitation, and energy.

    The research highlights that, despite the broad presence of projects in the Legal Amazon, the distribution of investments does not reflect the real needs of the local population. States like Acre and Amapá, which rank among the worst in infrastructure indicators, receive little attention from the program. Moreover, there is a disconnect between Novo PAC and the national deforestation reduction goals set in the Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Deforestation in the Legal Amazon (PPCDAm).

    According to the study, Novo PAC still follows an investment logic conceived outside the Amazon and for areas beyond the Amazon. “It is essential to develop infrastructure that respects regional diversity and contributes to improving the lives of the local population,” the analysis states.

    The study also criticizes the inclusion of high environmental impact projects—such as the Ferrogrão railway and the paving of the BR-319 highway—in preserved forest areas, without considering less harmful alternatives that are more aligned with efficient land use and the promotion of the bioeconomy. The authors argue that long-term plans, such as the National Logistics Plan (PNL), should begin to incorporate socio-environmental criteria and a strategic vision for the region.

    Among the recommendations are the creation of a specific development plan for the Amazon, with tailored solutions for the region’s diverse contexts—such as Forested Amazon, Deforested Amazon, and Amazon Under Pressure—and improved transparency and qualification of public investment decision-making processes.

    According to the researchers, aligning Novo PAC with sustainability goals and the real needs of the Amazon is not only a matter of social and environmental justice but a fundamental condition for the program’s long-term success.

    Read the full paper here.

  • Cutting Down The (Hydropower) Plants: How The Amazon Deforestationis Jeopardizing Electricity Generation in Brazil

    Cutting Down The (Hydropower) Plants: How The Amazon Deforestationis Jeopardizing Electricity Generation in Brazil


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    The Amazon rainforest plays a crucial role in the global climate agenda and the Brazilian economy. It has a large carbon storage capacity and provides essential ecosystem services, including the regulation of rainfall patterns on a continental scale. The loss of forest vegetation negatively affects local biodiversity, the country’s economic development, and global climate stability.

    Researchers from Climate Policy Initiative/Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (CPI/PUC-RIO) analyzed the impact of changes in rainfall patterns caused by deforestation on the country’s electricity generation. This study shows that deforestation in the Amazon negatively affects the country’s electricity generation capacity and revenue, even affecting hydropower plants (HPPs) located thousands of kilometers away from the Amazon biome.

    By analyzing four of the most significant HPPs in the country, this publication explores the effects of deforestation on electricity generation both inside and outside of the Amazon region. The first case study, focusing on the Teles Pires HPP, located in the Amazon region, identifies that deforestation has reduced monthly generation by 2.5% to 10%, resulting in an annual revenue loss of USD 21 million for the hydroelectric plant. The second case study investigates the impact of deforestation beyond the Amazon region. When analyzing the three HPPs in the Paraná Basin (located thousands of kilometers from the Amazon), researchers identified a generation loss of around 3%. For HPP Salto, for example, the electricity generation loss corresponds to a potential 10% loss of annual profit for the controlling company.

    Hydroelectricity has historically been Brazil’s main source of electricity generation, accounting for 48.6% of installed capacity and 60.2% of total generation in 2023. Hydroelectric power is a renewable source of energy that is economically competitive and brings operational flexibility to the electricity system. However, it is vulnerable to changes in rainfall patterns and hydrological regimes.

    The Teles Pires HPP case study was developed at CPI/PUC-RIO in 2020 by Rafael Araújo, then a senior analyst. The results of this research were published in January 2024 in the journal Energy Economics. In the current publication, CPI/PUC-RIO presents the full results of the research project “Deforestation and Energy Generation.”

    This study aims to highlight the connection between the Amazon rainforest and energy generation, demonstrating that the impacts of deforestation reach beyond the deforested area and affect national hydroelectric generation. This analysis hones in on the resilience of Brazil’s electricity mix, which is already facing water scarcity and increasingly frequent extreme weather events. Although this study focuses on two case studies, it raises the hypothesis that the reliability and availability of hydroelectric generation can be impacted by deforestation. In addition, the study identifies regions in the Amazon that contribute to the hydroelectric generation of the analyzed HPPs, as well as the land categories present in the areas of influence for each plant. By identifying the most relevant areas to hydroelectric generation, this analysis shows the priority areas for implementing conservation and restoration policies, which can guide the design of effective financial mechanisms and the targeting of public and private resources.

    The results highlight the need to define strategies that reconcile conservation and restoration policies with those for energy generation, ensuring greater institutional integration between energy and environmental issues. Especially since a large part of Brazil’s power generation system is exposed to this mechanism—17 of the 20 hydroelectric plants with the highest capacity are in the path of the flying rivers.

    Read the full paper here.

  • Carbon And The Fate of The Amazon

    Carbon And The Fate of The Amazon


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    What would happen to the Amazon if countries paid for its captured CO2? Brazil’s entry into the carbon market with a minimum value of US$ 20 could transform Amazon’s future. This is the result of the unprecedented study released by Climate Policy Initiative/Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (CPI/PUC-RIO) and Amazon 2030 project.

    “The reference of US$20 per ton of CO2 captured is a baseline for negotiation, given that EEG emission permits in Europe have been traded at US$90 per ton of CO2. In this study, we are proposing carbon capture, which could be even more valuable.”, says Juliano Assunção, executive director of CPI/PUC-Rio and coordinator of Amazon 2030.

    Carbon prices exceeding US$ 20 per ton of CO2 would be transformative for the Amazon. Under this scenario, the forest would no longer be a net carbon emitter and would capture CO2 on a large scale. “Every time we deforest the Amazon, we lose a significant part of our carbon stock. The study shows an efficient approach to eliminate deforestation and promote forest restoration while simultaneously increasing our profits.”, says José Alexandre Scheinkman, professor at Columbia University and collaborator of Amazon 2030.

    Almost 90% of deforested areas in the Amazon biome were used for cattle ranching. Data from System for Estimating Emissions and Removals of Greenhouse Gas (SEEG) indicates that agriculture and deforestation together account for almost three quarters of the country’s GHG emissions. Starting from US$ 20 per ton of CO2, the revenue from carbon (US$ 320 billion over 30 years) would compensate for the loss of revenue in cattle activities.

    “The minimum value of US$ 20 eliminates deforestation and promotes forest restoration. It would be more economically advantageous to turn most of the areas currently devoted to cattle ranching into areas destined for forest restoration through natural regeneration. We would be reconnecting the forest with its past and making more productive land use. Currently, there are many underused areas.”, explains Assunção.

    To assess the consequences of a payment for captured carbon, researchers developed a model considering the carbon cycle, agricultural dynamics, conservation of standing forests, and Amazon restoration, taking into account the forest heterogeneity.

    “We evaluated the impact of different carbon capture compensation scenarios in the Brazilian Amazon, developing a dynamic spatial model to examine the complex trade-offs in time and space between land use for cattle ranching and forest restoration and conservation.”, says Scheinkman.

    The Brazilian Amazon accounts for approximately 50% of national GHG emissions. At US$ 20 per ton of CO2, the Amazon would capture around 16 Gt CO2 in 30 years. By eliminating deforestation, Brazil would avoid emitting 32 Gt CO2, which would amount to 48 Gt CO2 over the next 30 years. This is nearly equivalent to global emissions in one year.

    This study shows that, in the absence of payments from other countries, current efforts to combat deforestation will not be sufficient to prevent the expansion of cattle ranching. Researchers predict an increase in deforestation driving the Amazon dangerously close to a tipping point in under two decades. If the Amazon reaches this critical point, it could release approximately 32 billion tons of CO2 over the next 30 years, potentially leading to a global climate collapse.

    “A robust payment mechanism for forest carbon can generate significant impacts at regional, national, and global levels. The proposed model focuses on removing carbon from the atmosphere by means of natural forest restoration, which directly contributes to the climate mitigation agenda. By doing this, we can avoid reaching a tipping point and gain more time to address the climate crisis. The same model can be replicated to other Amazon countries, in the Congo Basin and Indonesia.”

    Read the full paper here.

  • Financial Opportunities For Brazil From Reducing Deforestation in The Amazon

    Financial Opportunities For Brazil From Reducing Deforestation in The Amazon


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    There are many new opportunities emerging in voluntary and compliance carbon markets for REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) credits. In this policy brief we focus on opportunities linked to the LEAF Coalition (Lowering Emissions by Accelerating Forest finance). We quantify the size of the opportunity from reducing deforestation in the Legal Amazon in dollars, and provide a roadmap of policy and regulatory changes, and actions required to seize this opportunity.

    The framework for REDD+ was adopted at the COP19 in Warsaw in 2013. Since then, the bulk of results-based payments for REDD+ has been made by donor countries in bilateral or multilateral agreements with host countries (e.g., Amazon Fund), and therefore have been somewhat limited. However, it is expected that the financial flows for REDD+ will (and must) rise significantly with increased interest from the private sector either directly or through public-private partnerships.
    LEAF Coalition (Lowering Emissions by Accelerating Forest finance)
    The LEAF Coalition is a public-private partnership to provide results-based payments for high-environmental and social integrity credits from reducing carbon emissions from tropical deforestation and degradation (REDD+) at national or large subnational “jurisdictional” scales. The governments of Norway, the United States and the United Kingdom, and a group of major private companies, launched LEAF in April 2021. At the COP-26 meeting, the Coalition announced it had grown to include a total of 19 companies and had already mobilized US $1 billion in financing, representing the largest-ever public-private effort to protect tropical forests. LEAF continues to attract corporations and governments who are interested in buying high-quality REDD+ credits. Thus, the financing available for forest jurisdictions that achieve emissions reductions and removals is expected to grow.
    What is the size of the opportunity?
    Brazil has a competitive advantage on supplying high-quality forest carbon credits. Ending deforestation (illegal and legal) in the Brazilian Amazon in 10 years (2022-2031) could generate revenues in the magnitude of at least US $18.2 billion by 2031 through voluntary and compliance carbon markets at a floor price of US $10 per ton of CO2 as guaranteed by LEAF. Prices may also rise further and there are also opportunities for additional generation of credits through forest restoration (carbon removals). If prices rise to US $15 ton of CO2 in the 2027-2031 period, revenues can reach US $26 Billion.

    Read the full paper here.

  • Strategies For The Development of The Brazilian Amazon: Lessons Learned From Pre-Competitive Arrangements

    Strategies For The Development of The Brazilian Amazon: Lessons Learned From Pre-Competitive Arrangements


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    Communities and companies based in the Legal Amazon already export 64 products compatible with the forest and obtain an average revenue of almost US$300 million per year, but this value corresponds to only 0.17% of the corresponding global markets. Surprisingly, the largest exporters of these products are not based in advanced industrial countries such as the United States, Germany, and Japan. Rather, these companies and communities are located in countries with per capita income equal to or less than Brazil, such as Bolivia, Ecuador, Costa Rica, Indonesia, and Thailand.

    How did these countries manage to convert their natural resources into competitive companies and how can the main lessons of these experiences be applied in the Amazon and in Brazil? To answer these questions, this report examines three cases where rural-based companies have been able to expand their share of competitive, demanding, and profitable markets. To maintain some comparability with the Amazon, the report identified one case in the Bolivian Amazon (Brazil nut) and two in Southeastern Brazil (sugar and differentiated and specialty coffees). The three cases are rich in detail and allow for a lot of inferences, but their central message is one: companies have managed to make a comeback thanks to their ability to build and undergo a system of continuous improvement.

    Read the full paper here.